UFC feb 4th

#1
Nick diaz got on it at -135/-165/-175/-185 have a total of $3,230 wagered on it so far. Would wager big money on it up to -250

Nick Diaz is just a little better than condit at everything. And condit doesn't have the wrestling to get or keep diaz down. There's no one in the welter weight division that can stand with Diaz. The only type of fighter than can hang with Diaz is a great wrestler that can control him till the time runs out. It's next to impossible to ko or submit. There's not a fighter in the UFC I'm more comfortable with my money on. Condits almost the same exact fighter but Diaz is just a little better and a little more durable. Not having that great wrestling petigree gives condit a very small percentage of beating Diaz.
 

sunfun49

Senior Member
#2
Good luck Josh, hope you get it. Will also mention here that Condit is a much tougher fighter than BJ Penn, and that went to a decision win for Diaz.
sun
 
#3
Bj penn has never been knocked out, and that's the worse he's ever been Beatin in a standup fight, was manhandled that whole fight and couldn't take nick down. It's not saying to much saying condit is tougher than penn when comparing him to diaz cus penn did nothin in that fight so even if condit is tougher, it better be a lot tougher. This is also a 5 round fight against condit and penn wouldn't have made two more rounds. At this point in their carreers I'd say condit is the better fighter compared to penn, slighly better standup and better ground game by from the bottom, better cardio, but penn is a better wrestler and couldn't take nick down. It's debatable if condit is tougher, cus it's really hard to say he can take as much punishment as penn did in that fight and he's never even fought a fighter even as good as penn. Martin kampmann beat him 5 fights ago and rory macdonald schooled him for three straight rounds in the stand up and ground before getting submitted, neither of those guys have close to the boxing Diaz does. Weather it's a ko in the 3rd or 4th or a desision war , condit is gonna get the beating of his life for as long as it last. I've never been more sure about a single mma fight in my life.[hr]
There is nothing condit can do to win this fight, he can't ko or submit Diaz. He'd have to win a desision but the problem with that is Diaz keeps the same pace the entire fight, he runs triathlatons in his spare time, and looks as fresh at the begin as he does the end. There is only one way to beat Diaz and you have to have great wrestling and wait and hope the time runs out before he ko or subs you. Condit doesn't have even good wrestling, should make for a great fight, cus they are both great strikers with a high moter but Diaz's striking is on a whole nother level then anyone in the division. Carlos condit could try to land one of those flying knees, and maybe that will ko or rock Diaz but that's a very low percentage move and with Diaz constantly moving forward and not sitting back like some fighters I think it would be harder to hit. It's just a terrible matchup for anyone without wrestling to fight Diaz in mma, and I'd even extend that up to the middleweight division, with exception to Anderson silva ofcourse
 

sunfun49

Senior Member
#4
So you're saying Koschek might be able to beat Diaz (superior wrestling), but not Condit? Hope I get that matchup at some point, if Diaz is holding the belt.
By the way, any views on Kos-Pierce?
sun
 
#5
koscheck would have a better chance than condit, though I believe condit to be the better fighter than koscheck. Condit's well roundedness will be of zero help in this Diaz fight because one Diaz is better in all areas and two Diaz is more durable. All the wrestlers in the division would have a better chance of beating Diaz. It's just a bad match for condit. I would actually favor condit and Diaz in a fight against koscheck. But yea koscheck is a much tougher fight for diaz.

I favor koscheck in the fight with pierce, I think koscheck wins but I wouldn't lay 2.4 odds to 1 on it. Think it's gonna be a good tough fight, and koscheck pulls it out. Closer than what the odds say, but still see the favorite winning. So no play for me. At those odds -240, I'd much rather have my money on renan barao at the same odds, it's a lot safer proposition, see him getting a sub in the first, early second round at the latest.
 

sunfun49

Senior Member
#6
Like Werdum vs Nelson as well, & he is only (-145). He took Overeem to a decision in his last bout, & Alistair would be a 5-1 fave vs Nelson.
 
#7
unlike alistair, nelson has the chin to force the action, and he also has heavy hands, and he doesn't need to worry about the takedown as much as allister was in that werdum fight....this is another fight i can just see going either way, kinda like the koscheck fight, id personal rather stay away....i give big country the advantage in the first 1.5 rounds of the fight before he gasses....i'd either bet big country inside the distance, or id bet werdum by desision, to get better odds, becuase i don't see value in betting eaither guy at there current odds, i don't see werdum finishing nelson, and if nelson gasses as usual werdum should win the last 2 rounds and a desision becuase they are evenly matched-up where ever the fight goes, exept nelson has a more power, and werdum has a better gas tank.....so, if you like werdum, i'd go werdum by desision, to get more bang for your buck.
 
#8
i personallly lean to nelson, neither guy gonna be able to sumit the other, and nelson has better hands and more power. if only he could go 2 full rounds with out gassing.....
 

sunfun49

Senior Member
#9
Josh, do you like this prop as much as I do? Am betting the "No" here.
thx,
sun

Sat 2/4 1003 Diaz/Condit goes 5 round distance +135
11:59PM 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -175
 
#10
no i dont like it that much sun, cus i dont see the value in it, would rather just bet diaz at the same odds, cus he's the only one with a chance of finishing this fight, and would save the heart break if we did see a 5 round war...condit can't finish diaz, so that cuts out half your chances right there, and i dont think neither guy can submit the other, so thats another 25% chance taken away...could be a nick diaz KO/TKo or a 5 round war were nick wins every round...both guys are tough, so i wouldnt be surprised to see it go the distance.
 
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