GIG's Boxing Saturday 11/26

Kermit Cintron +550

There is just WAY too much value in this line to pass up this opportunity. Going to Mexico and beating Alvarez in his backyard on a decision to take his belt is quite a tall task, but we recently saw James Kirkland do something similar to Alfredo Angulo. Angulo, somehow, was in that fight on the cards, but Kirkland took it out of the judges hands. Kermit Cintron has the power to do the same tomorrow night.

Other than the hometown judging bias I would not label Alvarez the favorite in this fight. The most I could see Alvarez being favored by is 2 to 1. Cintron has more power, is the taller and longer fighter, has the better resume and more impressive wins. Cintron has already beaten one of the best Mexicans in boxing (Angulo), fought to a draw with arguably the best pound for pound boxer in the world (Martinez), and has been in the ring with the likes of Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito, David Estrada, Lovemore N'dou, etc.

Cintron's biggest weakness has been his ineffectiveness against strong, aggressive, pressure fighters. Margarito and Paul Williams overwhelmed him and made him uncomfortable, but I don't believe Alvarez has the physical traits to put Cintron in a similar position. He is much shorter, and will have a difficult time getting inside and around Cintron's jab. Alvarez's power has been vastly overrated and won't be effective to the degree people are anticipating.

Cintron will box effectively (as he did against Angulo), land significant shots that Alvarez has not proven he can handle as a professional yet, and keep the fight at a distance that the smaller Alvarez won't be comfortable with. It is going to be very difficult to overcome the home town scoring, especially with Golden Boy backing Alvarez, but there is just so much value in this line that it is impossible to pass up. I would have set this line around +150 to +175, so it's safe to say I see quite the value in +550.