Thoughts from a Memphis Homer

#1
tigerstitansredsox said:
Interesting line for next week UCF opened as a 2 point favorite and is now 4.5 point would have thought ucf would have been at least 20 point fav
I did not realize his but after Memphis beat UCF in 1990 (UCF's first year as a Div-1AA , previously a D2 school), UCF has reeled of 10 in a row to take a commanding 10-1 lead in all time head to head (10-0 since joining D1 FBS). The general perception, I believe, is that UCF will kill Memphis, but when looking at it more closely, the stats indicate the line might indeed be set appropriately. Outside of 2 bad quarters this season, Memphis has been a solid team and has the leading rusher in the nation. UCF has given up on avg 181.8 rushing yards this season (220.0 in the last 3 games). This will be UCF's second road game (UConn to open the season) and first on Turf. As a Memphis homer, before the line was set I thought UCF would kill Memphis, but after looking at it deeper, I am beginning to wonder if the books are setting this up for a trap. This is based on my expectation that the general public will have the same expectation that UCF will kill Memphis and be all over UCF at these low spread numbers. Even more interesting is that the line is set low enough where UCF money line might not be too expensive to get the average joe on the line, especially the avg joe's that do nothing but favorite parlays. Just some thoughts from a Memphis Homer; interested in seeing other's take on this.
 

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#2
At this moment I have no idea if I will play this game, however, what I will be looking at probably tomorrow are the team totals. Just a quick glance at BetUS shows me UCF at 43 for the game and Memphis at 38. But that is sort of a high profile game for my taste (playing a game with a top 25 team in it)
 
#3
All good points, i do like Memphis today just not sure I’m going to play it. Huge test for UCF and I’m quietly rooting for them to disrupt the bowl system but at 4.5 you guys are such a juicy home play.
 
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