NFL week 2

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#1
I have been working on formulating my own lines (sides only, no totals). Right now I am simply tracking them to see how they do. My main focus is to track these plays that have the largest variance vs. the books numbers and I am using Bookmaker for the numbers. I did so for week one and had some good results. Obviously the following does not mean didly squat in the sense that these were not posted here, however, this is what I came up with. The following are all ats. I crunch my numbers on Tuesday and look at the initial variances. Once more on Thursday before the Thursday night game and once more on Sunday morning.

The top 3 went 3-0

The top 5 went 3-1-1

The top 8 went 5-2-1

First of all I am looking to see if I can win with this (obviously). Second of all, if it has week to week success, where is the cut off line on the variance where I can achieve the best percentage of success.

The following are the top 5 at the moment for week 2. The number behind the team name is the variance between my line and Bookmakers line

Baltimore 7.42
Jacksonville 6.50
Oakland 5.25
Tampa Bay 4.75
KC 4.50
 

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#3
So do you have to buy points in the case of the variance?
No, there is no buying of points. The numbers I have listed there are the difference (variance) between the line I formulated and the actual line at Bookmaker.

Example: when I first posted this thread Bookmaker had the line for Baltimore as a pick 'em game so it was Baltimore pk -110. Based on the line I formulated it should be Baltimore -7.42 (obviously it could not be 7.42 so you could say 7 or 7 1/2)
 

Mr. Gus

Senior Member
#4
This is really interesting Vic. I look forward to tracking this forum and seeing how this pans out. This could turn out to be a very useful tool!
 
#6
At the moment there is still no line for the Minn/GB game and the line on the Balt/Cinci game has not moved so, for the time being, the variance of 7.42 on Balt is the second highest variance. That would make it a play. I have decided to post only the top 5 variance/plays and see how those pan out.

Reminder, for me this is tracking only

Baltimore pk -110
 
#8
Obviously not a good start to week 2 with the Baltimore loss

I decided I am going to post the top 8 so I will post 7 today as Baltimore ended up #2 on the list this week. The number I am posting behind the team is the variance between the line I formulated and the line at Bookmaker as of about 10 minutes ago. I am not playing these, merely tracking


Tennessee 14.25
Oakland 7.25
Jacksonville 5.50
Tampa Bay 4.75
Dallas 3.87
Arizona 3.75
Kansas City 3.50
 
#13
So ur lines r saying kc would be a favorite on a neutral field? I would have to disagree with that.
Honestly, I am not saying anything of that nature. This is merely an experiment based on numbers with an adjustment on those numbers in games where you have key player out. An example of that is last week when I subtracted a point from Dallas for the loss of their starting center.

As far as what you are stating about KC, what that (I guess) is saying as that on a neutral field they would be roughly a pick em game
 
#15
Ok, so in looking at the top 8 for the week I am showing the variance between my formulated line and what Bookmakers line was and then showing if they covered vs. the spread. I have decided that since I would normally place my bets mid morning on Sunday the lines I will be using are that lines that are out at the time. I also print out all of the lines Tuesday morning and will be using that for my own comparative purposes.

Tennessee 14.25 - win
Baltimore 7.42 - loss
Oakland 7.25 - win
Jacksonville 5.50 - win
Tampa Bay 4.75 - win
Dallas 3.87 - win
Arizona 3.75 - loss
Kansas City 3.50 - win


The 9th team (Miami) also had a variance of 3+ and that game won as well. Obviously it is extremely early in this process, however, at the moment it looks like a variance of 3 (or maybe 4) or more is the 'sweet' spot at the moment.

Here is a breakdown of week 1 and week 2 by variance

Week 1

7 + 1-0-0 100%
5 + 2-0-0 100%
4 + 3-0-0 100%
3 + 4-0-1 100%


Week 2

7 + 2-1-0 66.7%
5 + 3-1-0 75.0%
4 + 4-1-0 80.0%
3 + 7-2-0 77.8%
 
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