NFL 2018

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#44
God dang. How r u making these lines? Algorithm ?
At the moment it is simple math but I am making adjustments each week based on injuries. In week one I was using carry over numbers from last year and then looking at additions and subtractions to each team. A couple of examples would be the fact that Aaron Rodgers did not play the last few games of 2017 so, since he started 2018 on the field I am adding points to Green Bay's numbers. A subtraction would be Travis Fredrick not being able to play for the Cowboys to start the season. He has been their starting center for a few years now. To me that is the 2nd most important person on the offense behind the quarterback) and when that person has been in place for a number of years it holds some weight
 

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#48
Due to line movement with Tampa going from +1 to -1 this is no longer a play as the variance has gone from 3.37 to 1.37. Games that have had a difference of less than 3 have gone 8-19 through week 3 (excluding the game tonight, obviously)

If the line moves back to Pitt -1 sometime right before game time this would become a play, otherwise no
 

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#49
After yesterday when a couple of good sized dogs won straight up I decided to go back through all of the dogs that were 3+ and see how many straight up and calculate won/loss in games as well as dollars. These numbers are based on a $100 wager and the lines from Bookmaker the morning of the games as I print out all lines on Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday for my records. The numbers listed below are dogs only (a pick 'em game like Balt/Cinci on Thursday night week #2 does not count as a dog)


Week 1

0-2 -$200


Week 2

5-2 +$503


Week 3

4-1 +$1,375


Total

9-5 +$1,978
 

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#52
Based on the fact that Tampa is now -2 it becomes a no play. That means the stats on this week are done. I will post the preliminary variances for week 4 tomorrow
 

VicVega91

Super Moderator
#56
Here are the 3+ variances for week 4 as of this moment.


Buffalo 9.50
Indianapolis 7.38
Tennessee 4.75
Minnesota 4.62
Jacksonville 4.13
NY Giants 3.62
Detroit 3.38


I will check the line on Thursday for that evenings game (Minnesota) to see where that stands and if it still a play at that time

As always I will post the final 3+ group Sunday morning
 
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